2024-25 College Football Playoff: Comparing the blind progress of bubble teams

Heading into conference championship weekend, the College Football Playoff committee has made it clear that there is one bubble left.

The director of athletics in Michigan, Warde Manuel, who is also the chairman of the CFP committee, said that the teams that do not play this weekend will not be able to surpass other teams following the latest rankings.

Notre Dame (No. 4), Ohio State (No. 6), Tennessee (No. 7), Indiana (No. 9) and the losers of the Big Ten (Penn State vs. Oregon) and the SEC (Georgia vs. Texas ) title games currently hold six of the top seven bids in the CFP field.

With six of those spots seemingly locked up, Alabama currently holds the last at-large spot in the 12-team field. The committee ranked the Crimson Tide 11 in the latest rankings, which means Miami (Fla.) (No. 12), South Carolina (No. 13) and Ole Miss (No. 14) won’t be able to pass them for the top spot.

But Alabama may not have a great tight end on lock down. SMU, ranked eighth in the latest poll, plays 17th-ranked Clemson in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday. If the Mustangs win, they will get an automatic berth in the CFP and possibly a first-round bye. If they lose, they won’t have an automatic berth and risk being left out of the field in favor of Alabama.

Let’s see if the committee got it right by putting Alabama ahead of the other teams fighting for the final spot, with insight from FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd. You can vote for which group has the best blind CV at the end.

Team A

• Record: 10-2 (.833)
• AP Rank: 14
• SOS: 55
• Point Differential/game: 20.3 (8th)
• Wins vs. top 25 CFP: 0-1 (.000)Loss by four points vs. only CFP ranked opponent (currently ranked 22nd)
• Losing four points against only CFP-ranked opponent (currently ranked 22nd)
• Best win (highest CFP win): zero-rated win in CFP
• Record against FBS teams with a winning record: 3-2 (.600)
• Record in FBS/Intermediate road games: 4-2 (.667)

Team A has the best overall record of the teams in the bubble, and has been leading in most of its wins this season. However, they lacked any high-quality wins in the regular season and were the only team on the bubble with a limited win streak. Just three of the top 15 teams are winless against a team ranked in the CFP poll.

Team A also ended their season on a relatively low note. It has lost two of its last three games after going 9-0 on the season. It arguably did more than enough in those games offensively — with arguably the best offense in college football this season, ranking first in yards and points per game. It is near the middle of the pack defensively, however, ranking 60th in points allowed per game.

Team B

• Record: 9-3 (.750)
• AP Rank: 13th
• SOS: 15
• Point Differential/game: 13.8 (17th)
• Wins vs. CFP top 25: 2-2 (.500) -4.8 points differential in those games
• -4.8 average point difference in those games
• Best win (highest CFP win): for a team currently ranked 17th
• Record against FBS teams with a winning record: 3-3 (.500)
• Record in FBS/intermediate road games: 4-1 (.800)

Team B was the hottest team out of the four teams in the bubble. They have won their last six games, four of them by at least three points. It also picked up two straight wins in that stretch, winning both games by one point.

Team B’s path gets tougher when you consider their losses to teams ranked in the CFP. Both losses came against bubble teams, who lost head-to-head clashes. In addition to being the hottest team on the bubble, Team B can claim to have beaten teams that other teams on the bubble failed to beat. Team B beat two teams that Team C lost to, winning both games by at least 21 points. Team B also beat the team by 26 that Team D lost to.

In terms of team composition, Team B is offensively unspectacular. Ranked 48th in yards, 52nd in yards per play and 42nd in scoring. However, it has the nation’s best defense, ranking 16th in yards allowed and 14th in points allowed.

Team C

• Record: 9-3 (.750)
• AP Rank: 11
• SOS: 17
• Point Differential/game: 18.3 (12th)
• Wins vs. CFP top 25: 3-1 (.750)+9.0 average points differential in those games
• +9.0 average points difference in those games
• Best win (highest CFP win): against a team currently ranked fifth
• Record against FBS teams with a winning record: 5-1 (.833)
• Record in FBS road/neutral games: 2-3 (.400)

Team C’s best argument is that other bubble teams don’t have as strong a win streak as this one. In addition to defeating the team currently ranked fifth in the CFP poll, Team C also ranked with wins over Team B and 19th. Team C defeated the team ranked fifth and Team B only by points, but defeated the team ranked 19 by 34.

In addition to the head-to-head victory over Team B, Team C also beat the teams that Teams B and D lost to by 29 points. Team C lost one game against a team ranked seven points away. However, Team C’s two losses came against teams that finished the season 6-6. Some of these were lost by 21 points. They have also lost three of their last four games, which is something to consider, as they will almost certainly play on the road in the first round if they make the CFP.

Team C’s offense was one of the most electrifying offenses in the game for most of the season before running into problems later on. Still, it ranks 40th in the nation in yards, 22nd in yards per play and 17th in points. It has played better defense lately, though. Ranked 33rd in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed.

Joel Klatt and Colin Cowherd moderate the CFP committee

Team D

• Record: 9-3 (.750)
• AP Rank: 15
• SOS: 31
• Point Differential/game: 23.6 (4th)
• Wins vs. CFP’s top 25: 2-0 (1.000)+21 average points difference in those games
• +21 average point difference in those games
• Best win (highest CFP win): against a team currently ranked fifth
• Record against FBS teams with a winning record: 3-2 (.600)
• Record in FBS/Intermediate road games: 3-2 (.600)

Team D has shown a high ceiling throughout the 2024 season. Unlike the other three foam teams, they can boast that they have defeated all the ranked teams they have faced this season. They beat the team ranked fifth by 18 points and Team B away by 24. It also defeated one of the teams that Team C lost to by 12.

On the other hand, arguably no one else in the bubble has lost more than Team D has. All three of Team D’s losses are against teams that have yet to be picked in the CFP polls. One of those losses was to a 7-5 team and the other was to a 4-8 team that had one win against a power conference foe this season.

Similar to Team A, Team D has one of the best offenses in the nation. Ranked second in rushing yards, second in rushing yards and ninth in scoring. Unlike Team A, however, Team D’s defense has been solid this season. Ranked 18th in yards allowed and fourth in points against.

Conclusion from Klatt and Cowherd: Team C

Now, for disclosure: Team A is Miami, Team B is South Carolina, Team C is Alabama and Team D is Ole Miss.

With Alabama’s placement in the CFP rankings in turmoil due to its Week 13 loss to Oklahoma, 24-3, both Klatt and Cowherd agreed that its resume is the strongest of the four.

“Miami, you’re playing in a tough conference, you’ve lost twice and you’re not winning well,” Cowherd said. “Alabama has three losses. Fair enough, I don’t like that. I don’t think you should have two mulligans. But they beat Georgia. Losing to Oklahoma isn’t the worst thing in the world. They’re also 3-1 against ranked teams. I don’t like them having a mulligan more … but I’m taking Alabama over Miami and other options.”

Alabama and Texas in Joel Klatt’s final CFP bracket

Klatt believed Alabama’s resume would beat any of the other three bubble teams.

“I think I depend on the power of the system [and] based on what Miami did in their ACC play, they had a good ACC schedule where they didn’t have to schedule a lot of top teams,” Klatt said. “Bama’s resume isn’t very good. For me, the bubble was those teams from 11-14 – Alabama, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Miami. When you put Alabama head-to-head, resume-to-resume with all those bubble teams, they win the argument.”

Klatt wanted to emphasize that while he doesn’t think Alabama is a true title contender, it has the strongest playoff case of the remaining teams.

“I know people don’t like it and I understand that,” added Klatt. “I’m not saying this is a big pick. I’m just saying that in contention, Bama wins those contentions. Miami doesn’t have a ranked win. You could say they’ve lost at the wrong time, they’ve lost two of their last three games.

“This is not a good option, and I don’t think Alabama is a great team. I don’t think they have a chance to win a national championship. But in the CV debate with Miami, they win that argument.”

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