2024 NFL Week 12 Biggest Bets: Fade Cowboys at Commanders, Colts back to cover

Week 12 of the NFL is going to be interesting, to say the least.

We have Super Bowl favorite Detroit facing an Indy team that tends to keep games competitive, and we have the Harbaugh brothers facing off on Monday Night Football.

Which way will the pendulum swing in these games?

After all, I know where I put my money. Read on to check out my best bets for this weekend’s games slide.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, NOV. 24

Cowboys @ Administrators (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

I usually do my best to avoid picking favorites in different matchups, but I like the Commanders here.

I’ve heard this place called “the widow.” One team (Washington) comes with more rest, as they played last Thursday. One (Dallas), rested for a while, played on Monday.

You have to wonder if the Cows have given up. That disappointing loss to the Texans was the fifth in a row. There will be no playoffs. They have a road trip here and then they go back to the Thanksgiving game against the Giants.

Then check for injuries. Dallas finished the Houston game with three offensive linemen out, and it looks like two of them – Tyler Smith and Zack Martin – may not play on Sunday. Washington is in much better shape health-wise — except for Marshon Lattimore, who is out with a hamstring injury.

Finally, Dan Quinn spent a few years in Dallas and saw Cooper Rush practice every day. He knows Cooper’s strengths and weaknesses.

Even if Washington’s defense isn’t great, it shouldn’t be here. This feels like a 30-13 win for Washington. Oh, and double-digit favorites are 5-0 ATS this season.

PICK: Washington (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Blazin’ 5: Colts (+7.5) upset Lions, Eagles (-2.5) take care of Rams in Week 12

Lions @ The Colts (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

This one is hard to stomach, but I do it.

I love the Colts here.

Yes, the Lions have been a coverage machine, going 8-2 against the spread (ATS) this year, 14-6 ATS last year and 12-5 ATS in 2022. So just know every week that you’re supporting them, re-paying taxes in Detroit.

The Colts, quietly, have been good at rebounding this season, going 8-3 ATS.

Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco, Indy keeps games close. Ten of the Colts’ 11 games have been decided by one point.

Now, here’s the downside.

The Colts will be starting three rookies on the offensive line (LT, C, RG). Not good inside compared to car wreckers like Alim McNeill and DJ Reader. But the Lions are without their MLB star, Alex Anzalone. He is the green dot of the team, calling plays on defense.

Can Jonathan Taylor use it? His numbers with Anthony Richardson are much better than Joe Flacco’s, and the best way to slow down the Lions offense is to keep them off the field.

If you can get 10 cartridges from Richardson and 20 from Taylor again up to about 35 minutes of possession time, the explosive Lions will not be able to run away and hide.

PICK: Colts (+7.5) to lose by less than 7.5 points, or win outright

Is Jim Harbaugh’s approach right for Justin Herbert?

MONDAY, NOV. 25

Crows @ Chargers (8:15 p.m., ESPN/ABC)

“Harbowl” Monday is going to be great. This is a battle between two of the AFC’s most likely rivals.

One has an arrow pointing up (LA) and the other has several churches (Baltimore).

It’s still early for injury reports, but two key players who form the backbone of the Ravens’ defense – safety Kyle Hamilton and LB Roquan Smith – were injured in the loss to Pittsburgh. Their situation in this game will be the best. Especially against a tough team like the Chargers.

Speaking of being heavyweight, OC Greg Roman, and both RBs – JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards – are all former Ravens. Of course they will be looking for revenge.

The Chargers’ rookie running backs have been a problem against the pass-happy Bengals, but they don’t have much to fear behind Zay Flowers.

Jesse Minter, Charger DC, spent four seasons with the Ravens on staff and knows all the tendencies of John Harbaugh and Lamar, too. All edges seem to go to the Chargers.

PICK: Chargers (+3) to lose by less than 3 points, or win outright

Jason McIntyre is a betting analyst for FOX Sports who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before coming to FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Want good news delivered to your inbox? Create or sign in to your FOX Sports accountand follow leagues, teams and players to get a personal newsletter every day!

Find out more about the National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about sports, news and more