Two and a half weeks before Election Day, Burbank Rep. Adam Schiff was in south Florida, shaking hands with local Democrats and competing against Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
That same day, Republican Steve Garvey was at Temple University in Pennsylvania, accepting an award at a women’s sports media symposium.
You’d be forgiven for forgetting that both men were running for the US Senate in California.
After elbowing their way out of the state’s first competitive Senate primary in a generation, Schiff and Garvey face a race unlike any other.
Garvey has held few public events, Schiff has been out regularly promoting Democrats in highly competitive races, and neither campaign has really advertised.
That’s exactly what Schiff hoped for. He and his supporters spent tens of millions of dollars in the first term to prove Garvey’s involvement, boosted the former Major League Baseball star in the general election and avoided a costly runoff with Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine.
“It was over at that point,” said Sarah A. Hill, a political science professor at Cal State Fullerton. “The first was the election.”
Schiff’s support with the majority of California voters has not waned since. Depending on who you ask, that shows just how popular Schiff is — or how stacked the deck is against Republicans like Garvey who are running for the top office in a state where Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 voter advantage.
Given that Garvey has toyed with the idea of a Senate run since he retired from professional baseball in 1988, Schiff said, he would have expected him to be “better prepared,” “better aware of the issues.”
“His strength as a football player,” Schiff said. “As a policy maker, he does not inspire confidence.”
Garvey doesn’t match what California voters want, Schiff said, which is someone who will take action on climate change and reproductive rights, not someone who voted for Donald Trump three times.
Garvey and his campaign criticized Schiff for not saying how he would vote on Proposition 36, a criminal justice reform measure that would impose tougher penalties for retail theft and crimes involving fentanyl. Republicans support the measure.
Garvey also called Schiff a “liar” for his work on the congressional committee that investigated the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia during the 2016 campaign, telling him in one speech: “He lied to 300 million people.” You can’t take that back.”
Dan Schnur, a political science professor at Pepperdine, UC Berkeley and USC who has run statewide campaigns, said Garvey would have run in a state where Republicans have a fighting chance.
“In blue states like California, a Republican is not going to win a statewide race unless something extraordinary happens,” Schnur said. And, he said, there is nothing unusual about him.
Schiff all Democrats
Since late September, Schiff has traveled to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin to canvass Vice President Kamala Harris and potential Senate Democrats.
That includes a recent Saturday in Las Vegas, where Schiff hit the campaign trail for Harris and Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, who is in a re-election battle against Republican Sam Brown.
The day began at 9 a.m. outside the Nevada AFL-CIO headquarters. As more than 100 volunteers picked up breakfast burritos, campaign rations and fliers, Schiff said to the crowd: “It’s great to be in the Staff House – or, more accurately, the Staff Parking Lot.”
Schiff was a familiar face to many of the volunteers, who were bussed in from California by labor unions to knock on doors.
Schiff then went to a campaign event north of Las Vegas where he met Mexico charro horsemen and appeared with the grandson of César Chávez; a meeting of the West’s powerful carpenters, where he dropped three bombs during his speech; a late vegan lunch with actor Bryan Cranston, who volunteered for Rosen; a stop at Rep.’s phone bank. Susie Lee of southern Nevada; and the flight home landed in Burbank at 8:40 pm
Schiff campaigned again this summer and fell with other California Democrats, appearing and raising funds for Democrats trying to flip highly competitive House seats. He swept the state in the final week of the campaign, campaigning with congressional candidates in Irvine, Fullerton, San Diego, Madera and Bakersfield.
“I don’t take it lightly by any means,” Schiff said of his lead. “I was campaigning up and down the country, I am more aggressive than my opponent.”
Schiff’s campaign said it has raised nearly $10 million for Democrats. One brunch fundraiser in Los Angeles this summer netted $700,000, splitting his campaign with eight Democrats running for Senate in swing states.
“The control of the House and Senate is very much about what policy can be passed in the next administration,” said Kim Nalder, a political science professor at Cal State University Sacramento. “Of course you understand those problems. And it doesn’t hurt that he makes himself a friend of the needy.”
Garvey is barely visible
Garvey, whose campaign did not respond to a request for an interview, has held very few public campaign events. He visited the US-Mexico border last December, traveled to Israel this summer and toured a dam and burn site in Shasta County in the fall.
Garvey also spoke at several branches of the non-denominational evangelical Calvary Chapel, a common place for Republicans seeking high office in California. At an event last month, Garvey told an audience that California is “arguably the toughest Senate seat in America” for a Republican to win.
“It’s been a great journey,” Garvey said. “I have lived in this province for 50 years, playing in front of millions of people, performing. . That’s what we do, because we have faith.”
He also appeared in late October at an Anaheim bar next to the Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel along with House candidates Scott Baugh and Matt Gunderson at a rally hosted by the Orange County GOP.
Despite what Garvey said publicly, “he knew this was going to be the outcome,” said Jon Fleischman, a Republican campaign strategist and former California GOP chairman.
But, Fleischman said, Republicans owe Garvey a “debt of gratitude,” because the GOP’s presence at the top of the ticket will strengthen Republican candidates in competitive down-ballot races.
Garvey said he voted for Trump three times, but did not seek the former president’s endorsement. Trump said in September that was a “big mistake,” adding: “If he doesn’t have MAGA, he doesn’t have a chance.”
The polls showed that Garvey was right to bat in the middle. A recent poll conducted by UC Berkeley and co-sponsored by the LA Times found that 92% of respondents who indicated their political views as “MAGA” would support Garvey.
As Schiff shifted his focus to other Democratic campaigns, Garvey raised more money than Schiff in the second and third quarters of the year. Relying on ideas from his days with the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Garvey is selling autographed baseballs for $100 on his campaign website and has appeared at fundraisers under a banner depicting him hurling a baseball.
In a typed fundraising letter sent to older voters this fall, Garvey recalled that during his baseball glory days in the 1970s, “Democrat policies had brought America to its knees. And now, as Yogi Berra used to say, ‘It’s deja vu all over again.’
“I’m not Schwarzenegger and I wouldn’t dare compare myself to President Reagan,” Garvey wrote. “But the voters of California know me. And Adam Schiff and the Democrats are shaking in their boots at how fast I’m rising in the polls. “
At this point in the election, Flesichman said, “the metric isn’t how much money someone raised — it’s how much everyone spent.”
Schiff’s spending dwarfed Garvey’s, including more than 40% of the $75 million spent through March 5.
Garvey announced a $5 million ad buy in September focused on Latino voters, including radio ads for 40 Spanish-language stations. Univision also aired Spanish-language commercials on their live broadcasts during the team’s playoffs. But many voters didn’t see the ads at all.
California’s vote includes two Senate questions. One asks voters to choose Schiff or Garvey to serve out the remainder of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who ends in early January. One asks voters to choose one of the men to serve a six-year Senate term.
The race has been so tight, Nalder said, that many California voters “will be surprised to see a race on their ballot — and even more so if they see it twice.”
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