Washington, DC – The lightning-quick offensive saw the Syrian opposition seize control of major cities and large areas, toppling the government of longtime leader President Bashar al-Assad and indelibly changing the future of the war-torn country.
The events represented a dramatic reversal of fortunes in Syria and reignited a fractious civil war that had appeared dormant for years. This situation, analysts told Al Jazeera, also seems to have been unexpected by the administration of the President of the United States Joe Biden, and raises painful questions about how Washington will proceed in the coming weeks and months.
“I think everything that’s happening has caught them by surprise,” Qutaiba Idlbi, an executive at the Washington, DC-based Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera. “Many of us analysts and Syria watchers have been wondering what will happen next.”
“[The Biden administration] they will need to prepare their way in Syria,” added Idlbi, who is also a Syrian refugee. But all of that is guaranteed to reduce Biden’s power before he hands over the office in January to President-elect Donald Trump, he said.
“I feel like world events are moving too fast for them to catch up, especially at this lame stage.”
‘Historic opportunity’ or ‘risk and uncertainty’?
Speaking on Sunday – hours after opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) stormed the Syrian capital, Damascus and sent al-Assad fleeing the country – Biden gave his first response to what he described as a “historic” opportunity. ” and “risk and uncertainty”.
Biden said the end of al-Assad’s leadership is partly due to US support for Israel’s war in Gaza and its fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as support for groups in Syria and Iraq that weaken Syria’s ally, Iran.
He also expressed the support of the US for the war in Ukraine against the invasion of Russia, which took resources from Moscow, and is close to al-Assad: “The results of all this, for the first time, are not with Russia. [nor] “Iran or Hezbollah can protect this disgusting regime in Syria,” said Biden.
Looking ahead, Biden said Washington will prioritize supporting Syria’s neighbors — including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel.
He said the US military will remain in northeastern Syria, where it supports the Kurdish-led Syrian Army against ISIL (ISIS). About 900 US troops are currently in the northeast of the country.
Finally, Biden promised to engage with “all groups in Syria”, while vowing to “remain vigilant”.
“Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that ousted Assad have their own bad history of terrorism,” he said.
A senior US official quoted by Reuters, however, said HTS was “saying the right things”.
‘Six weeks left on the clock’
The first official response from the White House emphasizes several key questions that will determine the stance of US policy on Syria going forward.
But Biden — with his short time left in office — is unlikely to provide those answers, according to Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former Middle East analyst at the State Department.
“You are talking about a manager who has six weeks left until the end of the clock,” he said. “And with six weeks left on the clock, I was just trying to prevent and monitor potential problems or disasters.”
That means that many of the big decisions are likely to be made by Trump.
During his first term, Trump repeatedly wanted to withdraw US troops from Syria. He appeared to renew that effort on Saturday, writing on his Truth Social account that the US “will have nothing” with the country.
The Biden administration has also not revealed how it will balance its support for the SDF and ISIL war with a changing terrain on the ground. Like other rebel groups, the SDF has seized new territory – including the eastern city of Deir Az Zor and the Abu Kamal border crossing into Iraq – in recent days.
Speaking to reporters last week, Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said the US military “is not participating in the fight against the SDF” in their offensive.
But the fluid situation on the ground could see more opportunities for escalation between the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), according to analyst Idlbi.
“Yes, those questions are still pending,” he said.
The Biden administration is expected to revisit its designation of HTS as a “terrorist organization”, which would limit US engagement with any emerging transitional government.
Jabhat al-Nusra was founded in 2012 by ISIL but split from the group a year later and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda. It joined forces with other groups and split from al-Qaeda in 2017, renaming itself HTS.
Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, whose real name is Ahmad al-Sharaa, has expressed himself as a supporter of pluralism and equality, but it remains to be seen how this group will treat the different communities that make up the Syrian people.
The US government continues to have a $10m bounty on its head.
‘Backburner’
Although Biden’s celebration was celebrated with the expulsion of al-Assad, Idlbi said he is still wary that this is the result the administration wants to see.
At the very least, he said the Biden administration was caught in the crossfire between different schools of thought: One that supported keeping al-Assad in power to avoid a vacuum, while distancing him from Iran, and another that supported broader regime change. .
He pointed to a Reuters news agency report last week that said the US and the United Arab Emirates have recently discussed the possibility of lifting sanctions on al-Assad if he agrees to withdraw from Iran and cut off arms routes to Hezbollah.
The principles of the Biden administration’s approach to the situation, and its withdrawal from Syria since taking office in 2021, have not been completely taken, he added.
“Syria has been put on the back burner for the past four years, and the burner has been turned off,” Idlbi said.
In many ways, the demoralized strategy reflected US policy throughout the war, which saw support from some opposition groups enter a campaign of rhetorical pressure against al-Assad.
The administration of the former American President Barack Obama initially accepted the opposition of al-Assad as protests like this one have hit the Middle East, supporting a coalition of rebel groups that are concentrated in pockets in the east and south of the country.
That support involved a since-dismantled CIA program that saw the US, the United Kingdom and several Arab countries funneling money, weapons and training to other rebel groups. The program has been criticized for arming groups that are considered “terrorist” by the countries involved.
Obama also said al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against Syrians would be a “red line”, but ruled out direct military intervention following the government’s 2013 chemical attack on Ghouta. Four years later, Trump struck a Syrian airbase. in response to the chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikhoun, the first US attack of its kind since the war began.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Mahmood Barazi, president of the American Coalition for Syria, which is a group of American organizations against al-Assad, said that this rapidly changing situation has prompted him to rethink the way to resist the incoming Trump administration.
Given Trump’s unique mix of isolationism and paranoia in Tehran, Barazi planned to focus on Iranian influence in Syria to convince officials of the need to loosen the screws on al-Assad.
Now, he is trying to find the best way to “create a plan with this administration to maintain a reasonable and effective approach towards Syria”.
“For me, this is an opportunity,” he said.
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