What is at stake in the general election?

If a politician insists that they do not plan to call an election, it is best not to believe it.

Simon Harris is now among that level of party leaders.

He has been telling himself for months that he wants his government to be fully operational next year, the temptation to vote well has proved too great.

In October the three government organizations have agreed that the national elections will be held this year – yesterday Harris officially called an election and asked President Higgins to dissolve the Dáil.

But while this is the first major test of the Fine Gael leader’s election, for his political opponents there is just too much at stake.

In the last general election four years ago, Sinn Féin – the main opposition party in the republic – surprised political rivals and pundits when they won big, by winning 37 seats and to get preferential votes from any party.

It marked a break with the two-party system of government, traditionally dominated by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, marking a major shift in support for the party across the islands.

Senior members of the party admitted that their tactics were more cautious and that they could have won more seats if they had contested more elections.

They declared victory despite the big teams he refused to enter the government with them, and insisted in the future that party president Mary Lou McDonald would be elected as the first woman taoiseach (prime minister of Ireland).

But this time, there is no expectation that the team will manage to repeat the performance.

The first sign that all was not well came from the disappointing performance of local government and the results of the European elections during the summer.

Sinn Féin put the loss and drop down the ideological ranks down the list of things and insisted it would happen “regroup” before the general electionbut the time to do so is much shorter than we would like.

There is also increased pressure on the group after it was revealed that two media officers had given clues to a former member of the group who was being investigated by police for child sex offenses. They have resigned.

Then in October, it emerged that Sinn Féin Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile had not left the party in December 2023 for health reasons, as the party had said.

Mr Ó Donnghaile was suspended from the party months ago for sending inappropriate texts to a child.

McDonald was due to answer questions from the Dáil newspaper about the party’s handling of the issue.

An issue that has proved tricky for Sinn Féin and other parties is the failure to clarify how to manage immigration.

It has become a major social and political issue in Ireland after the country received large numbers of Ukrainian refugees, as well as an increase in other sources of immigration.

Between March and December 2022 approx 68,000 people came in Ireland from Ukraine under the EU’s temporary protection order.

The sudden and unprecedented influx put a huge strain on the Irish state’s resources, with the government having to take measures such as temporarily setting up tents for the people.

The Irish government was already struggling housing crisis before the increase in immigration.

Right-wing protesters took hold series of demonstrations asylum centers and other buildings reserved for asylum seekers were burned.

Recent polls have suggested that housing and immigration are the biggest issues for voters – a reality that won’t be seen by the parties, but will be faced by all.

As for Fine Gael, Simon Harris is going into this election hoping for a stronger result than his predecessor Leo Varadkar. held in 2020where the party lost 15 seats.

It cannot form a government by itself, it wanted to form a federal government and Fianna Fáil and the Green Party – a deal that took four months to negotiate.

There is no doubt that Fine Gael has felt the jitters as Harris enters the top job.

He is still facing the challenge of showing the voters that his party should continue to rule after almost two decades, but it has thrown the voters. budget bonanza with more money in many sectors, hopes are high for the party to see improved performance.

When it comes to Fianna Fáil, its leader Micheál Martin has spent the last four years rounding out the top two jobs in elected politics.

First as taoiseach, taking over from Leo Varadkar in the first half of the term as part of coalition preparations, before becoming Tánaiste (deputy prime minister of Ireland) and Irish foreign minister in 2022 – a role that has seen him become more involved in politics. events north of the border and.

It’s his party win a little the most seats in 2020, gaining Sinn Féin’s 37 seats to just one.

Recent polls showed the party sitting at around 20%.

Whether the party does better than in the past or struggles with Fine Gael will determine how Fianna Fáil views Micheál Martin’s future as leader, after 13 years in the job.

The success of independent candidates and other small parties in the recent councilor elections is something that may come into play again this time.

Elections always bring twists and turns, noise from candidates who will regret it and sometimes, moments that really change the dial.

The Republic of Ireland is now about to see all of that as the campaign machine revs up again.